Yesterday Florida held its primary elections. In the Primary election, Mike Yost, who thinks he should be representing Florida's Third Congressional District, won the Republican primary with 8,758 votes (or 45.8% of total). The Democratic incumbent, Corrine Brown won the Democratic primary with 34,292 votes (or 80% of total) over her opposition candidate. Even though Mr. Yost won here, sadly I think he should realize that he is toast.
The results indicate that Corrine Brown should easily win the general election in November. She received more votes than the total number votes cast for all Republican candidates plus her lone Democratic opponent, 34,292 versus 27,720 or 55% versus 45%.
Based on my research in the district, the swing vote is with those in the inner city, an area Mr. Yost seems afraid to tread. Case in point, just look at Mike's website. Even looking closely, it is very hard to find pictures of the faces of people that make up the core of the district. Additionally, he does little to address the specific core issues in the district, such as extremely high unemployment (3x the figure he uses), crime, broken families, etc., which may be a sign of the 'anti-incumbent' times. As I walked and talked in the pre-primary explorations I found that these local concerns are the issues that resonate in the swing voters. I say the following sadly for Mr. Yost (because he has worked hard), I believe he will end up like all the other Corrine Brown opponents, a Loser with a capital L.
First Mr. Gilman, you have failed once again in your assumptions regarding Mike Yost. Your lack of attendance at debates, his events, and his engaging the people of the District indicates you are simply "shooting from the hip"- hoping to hit something yet missing the mark totally.
ReplyDeleteYou have failed to HEAR what Mr. Yost has been saying for months regarding the issues of this District and his PLAN to bring prosperity, JOBS, end the poverty, and bring opportunity to ALL people living here. No, you instead claim only YOU know what is happening because you took a few walks, talked to a few people, and made claims (wildly I add), that only YOU know the issues of this District.
Is your anger at NOT receiving the GOP support and backing once again raising it's ugly head in your effort to get the nomination? After all, you dropped out of the race once you realized that no one was taking you seriously, that Mr. Yost took you to task early on, and that you raised no money to even come close to winning a Primary.
No, Mr. Gilman, instead of doing what a Conservative SHOULD be doing, you make outlandish claims you should research first BEFORE you write. Are you another of the "good 'ol boy" Republicans who CLAIM something you are not? Sadly, instead of making a contribution to bringing sanity back to this District and to help Mr. Yost address the problems, you do what every sore loser does- attack.
Go write about something else Mr. Gilman, at least about something you KNOW the facts behind. At least ASK Mr. Yost about his discussions with minority business leaders and discussing the issues all Americans face. Bringing "race" into this election is precisely what Rep. Brown HOPES you will do, and you did it well.
Good luck Mr. Gilman in your endeavors. And while you are at it, don't quit your day job. Selling more of the worthless pieces of paper called stocks, bond's, and derivatives suits you well. Writing about things you know nothing about isn't your forte'.
Bo:
ReplyDeleteThank you for your comments. Unlike previous ones offered by others, yours pertain to a specific post and worthy of publication, even more so because yours are so critical and challenging. I wonder the purpose of your comments; I wonder whether they are to:
1. convince me that my opinion of Mr. Yost is wrong;
2. drive a wedge between us, which would make it harder for me to change my opinion; or
3. just vent.
I will do my best to address your comments and answer your two questions. I will separate out what I consider to be your beliefs from the facts - as you state them. In the process I hope to earn your confidence that I know what I am talking about. I may not, but I aim to do my best.
While you may think Mr. Yost may win and can win, I do not. I am not “shooting from the hip” as you claim; I believe numbers do not lie. There are three registered Democrats to each Republican and most people vote the party line. There are also an equal number of non-party affiliated (aka independent) voters as Republicans, but I believe their voting behavior is proportional to the Democratic/Republican mix; therefore, I do not think it takes a rocket scientist to figure out that it is extremely hard for any Republican to win in this situation. There are previous results to validate this point.
However, it may take a rocket scientist to figure out that the message should be geared for those that are undecided. Arguably, Republicans are not undecided; Republicans will vote for anyone even a dog before voting for Corrine Brown. Therefore, by exclusion, I think it is reasonable to conclude that those that are undecided are independents and Democrats. I discovered when I “took [more than] a few walks” and “talked to [more than] a few people” that these “undecideds” lived in the core of the district and represent approximately 20% of the vote. Unless Mr. Yost can convince me otherwise, which he has yet to date, I do not believe he has the message that resonates with these voters and I heard that message loud and clear even though you claim I “FAILED” to do so.
I am not sure how many times you expected me to hear his message. If he was changing it all the time, then I should have, but based on what I saw and heard on the campaign trail and in his videos, what I heard from his radio interviews and what I read in published news articles, he was fairly consistent. He stated positions that appeal to the core Republican base.
It is true, I “dropped out of the race” as you put it, but not because “no one (presumably Mr. Yost’s core constituents) was taking me seriously” as you claim (which may very well be a fact, but I care less). If you read, What's Up Doc?, you would know that I exited the campaign trail due to lack of personal funds. You may also realize from reading that post, I am not angry. May be you are the one that is angry. Even though I do not know who you currently are, I think I may know where you are coming from. I sense frustration and despair, feelings that I detected first hand when I walked the streets in Orlando a little more than a year ago. I encourage you to read (or even re-read) the last three paragraphs of Crime Ridden Neighborhood, Indeed.
You use the “Conservative” moniker to brow beat me and wonder whether I am a "good 'ol[e] boy’ Republican” (or in other words, I think you are trying to say that I am Republican In Name Only). I am not big on labels and party affiliation because they can be divisive depending on the audience. I work to seek common ground so I can help craft a win/win solution. Case in point, I think you and I can agree (common ground) we do not respect Ms. Brown (albeit possibly for different reasons) and would like to see her displaced. It is possible my opinion of Mr. Yost is wrong, but as an advocate of his, your accusatory and negative tone does little to change my mind that Mr. Yost has not reached out enough to those that are undecided.